As we have seen for the last few years, nothing in the Western Conference ever comes easy. Unlike the East, not one series in the West can be taken for granted. The Lakers and Clippers have been on a crash course to meet in the conference finals, but all eight teams have a chance to make history and make a run in the bubble. As I did in my Eastern Conference breakdown, I will be addressing each team that competed in the NBA Orlando restart, and giving insight into the action-packed playoffs that are finally upon us.
The Los Angeles Lakers are the current betting odds to win the championship. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are two good reasons to believe that the Lakers are the team that will be hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy come October. Even with having two of the top five active players in the league, there is cause for concern about LA’s ability to compete with teams deeper than them. After their two superstars, the Lakers have struggled to find a consistent supporting cast. Since starting guard Avery Bradley opted out of the restart and Rajon Rondo fractured his thumb during an early practice, the Lakers have been desperately looking for guards to play alongside LeBron James. In order to be successful at obtaining their goal, the Lakers need consistent scoring help to go with James and Davis. Included in that supporting cast are Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green, Dion Waiters, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and JR Smith. They need Kuzma to step up and be the third scoring option and the shooters to be able to knock down open shots when the attention is on LeBron and Anthony Davis. If they get the necessary support, I don’t see a team that can match up well with LeBron and Davis. The Lakers will be playing the Blazers round one, which is an interesting matchup. Portland had injuries throughout the year and if they were healthy all season would have been a higher seed. With the lack of offensive success from the Lakers so far in the restart, I think that Portland has the ability to scare the Lakers. The worst-case scenario for the Lakers is Portland comes out red hot, the Laker guards are not able to contain Lillard and McCollum, and the Lakers fall in round one. After a tough first round, it won’t get any easier for the Lakers because they will most likely draw Houston in round two and then their LA counterpart in the conference finals. This might very well be the hardest path a top seed has ever had to reach the NBA Finals. But, I have confidence in LeBron James and Anthony Davis getting the job done and the supporting cast doing just enough to help the Lakers get back to the finals and become champions once again.
Once the Los Angeles Clippers acquired superstar tandem Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, everyone began to look forward to a potential all LA Western Conference Finals. After LeBron and Davis, Kawhi and Paul George are the second best duo in the league. Unlike their LA counterpart, the Clippers have a great role players surrounding their two stars. This includes a great mix of rough and tough defenders and offensive help in shooting and shot creating. Unlike the Eastern Conference, the West has no easy series and the Clippers will have their hands full with Dallas in the first round. If Luka Doncic asserts himself as one of the league’s most elite and the Clippers defense is not able to stop the Mavericks’ record setting offense, the Clippers may be leaving the bubble earlier than expected. The series will be interesting, but I think the Clippers getting their 6th man of the year finalists in Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams back in the rotation are too deep for a good but inexperienced Mavericks team. The best-case scenario for the Clippers, is becoming NBA Champions. In addition to having two top tier talents in Leonard and George, they also have the best supporting cast in the league. One thing that helps the Clippers is having multiple versatile wings to guard LeBron James and pressure him whenever the ball is in his hands. Though they have the ability to potentially slow The King down, they don’t have an answer to guarding Anthony Davis, and I see THAT being the reason the Lakers reach the Western Conference finals and defeat the Clippers in a classic series.
The Denver Nuggets are legit and we realized just how deep they are in the bubble. Led by all-star do-it-all center Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets fell to the Blazers last year in the second round and are looking to advance further this year. Jamal Murray showed last year that when the stakes are high, he can join Jokic at an elite level of play and be a big shot maker. The Nuggets are without two starters due to injury and their availability is uncertain for the future. Gary Harris and Will Barton are both very good players that would make Denver’s depth elite if they were able to return at some point. Going into the bubble, there was a lot of uncertainty around how the Nuggets would fair without their two starters. Instead of struggling to find guys able to fill those roles, Denver got a pleasant look into the future. When Denver drafted Michael Porter Jr. with the 14th overall selection in the 2019 draft, they knew they were already a contending team that could wait and allow him to fully recover from back injuries sustained in college. After having trouble finding opportunities playing behind Will Barton during the regular season, Porter filled the role of starting small forward better than anyone in the Nuggets’ camp could have envisioned. Porter has been their leading scorer in the bubble and gives them a wing to play alongside Murray and Jokic. Rookie Bol Bol has also been a solid addition showing promise after making his NBA debut in the bubble. The Nuggets will face a Bojan Bogdanovic-less Utah team in round one, and I believe they have enough to get it done in that matchup. The worst-case scenario for Denver is Harris and Barton stay inactive and Porter’s play is not the same in the playoffs as it was in the final regular season games. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert outplay Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and are able to advance without their second leading scorer. As stated before, I do not see that happening and I have Denver’s depth and versatility being the deciding factor. In order for the Nuggets to advance to the Conference Finals, I believe they would need a Dallas upset of the Clippers because I do not believe they have what it takes to unseat Los Angeles. Denver may have the best future outlook out West, but it’s not enough to win this year.
Did we ever think we would see a starting center the height of a guard? Welcome to the Houston Rockets’ new small ball style of play. Houston has the most talented backcourt ever with former MVP’s James Harden and Russell Westbrook. Led by their two alphas, GM Darly Morey has fully invested in his two stars the necessary pieces that fit their style of play. Though lacking in size, Robert Covington and PJ Tucker are tough defensively and can also hit the open 3 point shot. This is crucial playing alongside two guards who need the ball in their hands to be the most successful. The Rockets square off against Oklahoma City in round 1 and the result of that series could depend on the availability of Russell Westbrook. Dealing with a recent injury, he is expected to miss the beginning of the series, but I expect him to return. If he is out for the whole series then I would give the advantage to Oklahoma City. My problem with the Rockets is that their lack of size will backfire on them. If they are not shooting the ball well, they will need to get stops and rebounds in order to win. This is something that will be challenging against a larger OKC team, anchored by Steven Adams. That is why my worst-case scenario for the Rockets is they lose a tough, drama-filled first round series to the Thunder. On the other hand, if Houston is able to push the pace and get hot from downtown, I don’t see a team being able to slow down the Rockets’ backcourt once they get healthy and running except potentially the Clippers. Their best-case scenario is that the Rockets get Westbrook back early on, deal with the size disadvantage, and upset the Lakers and Clippers on the way to the NBA finals. But like the Clippers, the Rockets do not have an answer for Anthony Davis, which will eventually be their downfall as I have them losing to the Lakers in round two.
After the Oklahoma City Thunder were eliminated in the first round once again last season, they moved on from cornerstones Russell Westbrook and Paul George. In return, OKC landed Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dalino Gallinari, and an abundance of first round selections for years to come. Once Paul was announced as a member of the Thunder, there was doubt that he would ever suit up for them because he is an all-star guard in the later stages of his career on a team headed for, what seemed to be, an inevitable rebuild. Paul was not dealt, and the Thunder entered the season with a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs. The decision to keep Paul ended up being a great one. The Thunder sent a shock wave through the league by not only making the playoffs but by also improving their win percentage from the previous season. Chris Paul eliminated any talks of being “washed-up” by once again playing at an All-NBA level at the age of 35 and proving he is still one of the most valuable players in the league. Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander blossomed into an excellent guard next to Paul and looks to have all star appearances in his future. Completing OKC’s three-headed monster at guard, is sixth man of the year finalist, Dennis Schroeder. Schroeder would start on most NBA teams and is a great first option off the bench. The Thunder open up with the Rockets in the first round, and I believe that will be an eventful series. Russell Westbrook is expected to miss the start of the series and that will play a big role in what happens. I anticipate he will be back at some point in the first round, and if he comes back during the middle of that series Houston should be able to close them out. If he is out the whole first round series, I believe OKC would advance. While the back court matchup is intriguing, the two front courts have a contrast in play style. Houston has adopted the small ball approach while Oklahoma City still plays traditionally with a 7 footer at center in Steven Adams. Adams and other Thunder bigs such as Gallinari, Nerlens Noel, and Mike Muscala all have to keep Houston’s short, scrappy veterans off the glass. They also would need to be able to defend the small ball, which is where I see a problem brewing for Oklahoma City. Gallinari and Adams will be defending further from the basket in open space than they are accustomed to. As good of a story as Oklahoma City has been this year, I believe that Chris Paul will not be able to get his revenge as they fall in the opening round once again.
If Bojan Bogdanovic was in the bubble and in the lineup for Utah, my outlook on them would be completely different. One of the most underappreciated players in the game today, Bogdanovic is a key part of the Jazz as he averaged 20 points a game and shot over 40% from three point range. The Jazz are lead by all-star guard Donovan Mitchell and all-star and former DPOY winner and current finalist Rudy Gobert. They acquired Mike Conley in a trade in the off-season, and though he hasn’t been as good a fit as they thought he would be, he’s still a talented player and a savvy veteran with playoff experience. Without Bogdanovic, Utah has been looking at a few different players to fill his role. Those players include Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale and Georges Niang who all contribute in their own ways. The Jazz will open up against Denver in the first round, and my best-case scenario for them is that Conley and Mitchell are able to work together better and Gobert is able to keep Nikola Jokic in check. If they are successful in doing that, then they can advance and then fall to the Clippers in round two, but not without gutting out a tough win or two in that series. With the recent play of Michael Porter Jr, I would choose Denver to win a close series even if Utah had Bogdanovic. However, I do not see the Jazz being able to overcome the loss of their second leading scorer.
If you enjoy watching high scoring games, I’d advise you to tune in any time the Dallas Mavericks hit the hardwood. Led by 21-year-old sensation Luka Doncic, Dallas has the highest rated offense ever. Doncic is in just his second season, but by almost averaging a thirty point triple double has put himself among the NBA’s elite. Being equally effective setting up his teammates and scoring, Doncic plays alongside many shooters whom he can rely on to make outside shots. The Mavericks will square off against the Clippers in the opening round, and this series will be a good measuring stick to see where they stack up against the league’s elite. Luka will have to work for every basket with elite defenders such as Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverly not allowing him to get anything easy. If the Mavericks were to win the series, it will be because Kristaps Porzingis takes another step and enters the NBA’s elite. Similar to the Lakers series, the Clippers have multiple bodies to make things difficult for Luka as they will LeBron. Conversely, they don’t have an answer for Davis and they won’t have one for Porzingis either. Porzingis will most likely draw Harrell as his match up, and will need to take advantage of his eight inch height difference for Dallas to prevail. As good as Dallas is offensively, their defense will be an issue in the playoffs. They don’t have any elite wing defenders to match up against Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and I see Dallas falling short.
The last team in the Playoffs earned their way in after beating Memphis in a play-in game Saturday afternoon. Led by All-NBA point guard and Bubble MVP Damian Lillard, the Portland Trail Blazers are the most talented 8th seed we have seen to date. Lillard has been spectacular all season long as Portland battled injuries to a lot of key players to scratch and claw their way into the playoffs. Lillard’s backcourt partner CJ McCollum is great alongside Lillard, and has the ability to make big shots as well. With Jusuf Nurkic now finally healthy, the Blazers have a dominant big man 1-2 punch with Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside was able to revive his career by rebounding and blocking shots at an elite level once again after being dealt from Miami to Portland. The piece that really allowed the Blazers to take off was the signing of Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo is a polarizing figure and a future Hall of Famer who would have seen his legendary career come to an end if Portland never picked up the phone. Once signed, Melo proved he can still put the ball in the basket averaging 16 points a game, and is a great option to help space the floor alongside their dynamic duo in Lillard and McCollum. After ousting Memphis in the play-in game, Portland will now be opposite the number one team in the West, the Los Angeles Lakers. Led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers are once again at the top of the Western Conference; but, do they really resemble a top seeded team? Without the services of Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo, Lillard and McCollum should be able to have their way offensively. They also have the size to match Anthony Davis with Nurkic and Whiteside. The one thing they do not have is an answer on the wing for LeBron James. With Trevor Ariza opting out, they lost their primary wing defender who could make things difficult for James. Even though the Lakers are my championship favorite, they need to be locked in right away. The Blazers will be able to score, and if the Lakers supporting cast disappoints, we may have a historic upset on our hands. That being said, Portland’s lack of wing defenders should prove to be costly. LeBron will be able to score at will and create shots for his teammates. Portland has been entertaining in the bubble and will continue to be for as long as they stay alive this postseason.
The Western Conference also had a number of teams that did not make the postseason, but benefited from participating in the restart in Orlando. The Memphis Grizzlies, led by Rookie of the Year favorite Ja Morant, almost made it playoffs despite Jaren Jackson Jr. tearing his meniscus at the tail end of the season. In Memphis the future is bright with Morant, Jackson, Brandon Clarke, and Dillon Brooks. The Phoenix Suns were the only undefeated team in the bubble. Devin Booker was unstoppable, capping off the first all star season of his career. If DeAndre Ayton continues to progress, the Suns will be in the playoffs for years to come. For the first time in the last 22 years, the San Antonio Spurs are not a playoff team. After LaMarcus Aldridge announced he wouldn’t play in the restart, Demar Derozan did everything he could to continue the streak. Now it’s time to move on from their older players and begin to rebuild around the young talent they have like Dejounte Murray,Derrick White, and Lonnie Walker. Although they were close enough to stay in the playoff conversation, the Sacremento Kings weren’t able to close the gap. With Marvin Bagley III out due to an injury, the Kings’ main focus was to continue building around De’aaron Fox and looking toward a future postseason berth. The team that had arguably the most hype coming into the restart, was the biggest disappointment. Entering the bubble with a serious chance at the 8th overall seed, the Pelicans instead finished 13th. The Pelicans have their brightest days ahead of them. Lonzo Ball struggled badly in the bubble after strong play before the restart, and Zion Williamson never seemed to have his conditioning under control, affecting his play. Overall though, Lonzo, Zion, and first time all-star Brandon Ingram give the Pelicans hope.
Jack Kelly
Twitter @jack83kelly
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